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Shehbaz Govt fails to achieve targets of all key economic indicators

The incumbent government led by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has failed to achieve all important Economic indicators during the fiscal year 2022-23 due to flood and the stabalization program of the IMF.

According to the Finance division, Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar will launch the Pakistan Economic Survey on Thursday June 08, 2023.

The Economic Survey will provide details about the major socio-economic developments, performance, and economic trends of various sectors of the economy including Agriculture, Manufacturing & Industry, Services, Energy, Information Technology & Telecom, Capital Markets, Health, Education, Transport and Communication etc.

Annual trends of major economic indicators regarding Inflation, Trade and Payments, Public Debt, Population, Employment, Climate Change, and Social Protections will also be described in detail in the economic survey.

Sources told that the country’s GDP stood at 0.3% in 2022-23 against the target of 5%.

The growth in the agriculture sector declined to 1.5% against the target of 3.9% in 2022-23.

The growth in important crops remained negative 3.20% against the target of 3.5% in 2022-23. On the other hand, the livestock sector would remain at 3.8% in the current fiscal year.  

The growth in industry (manufacturing and Large Scale Manufacturing) remained negative as the government had set a 5.9% target of industry which was recorded at a negative 2.9%. 

Major industries performed at -7.98% against the target of 7.4%; the target for electricity, gas, water supply was 3.5%, and they showed an efficiency of 6%.

The target for the construction sector was 4%, and it recorded a performance of -5.53%; the services sector’s target was 5.1%, while its performance remained 0.86%. The wholesale/retail sector target was 6.5%, while its performance remained at -4.46%.

The transport sector, an outlier, showed a growth performance of 4.73% against a target of 4.5%. The target for the real estate sector was set at 3.8%, while it recorded a performance of 3.72%. The performance of the public administration sector was recorded at -7.76% against a 4% target.

Sources said that the government has set a 3.4% target of industry, 4.3% Manufacturing and 3.2% Large Scale Manufacturing for next fiscal year 2023-24.

Meanwhile, the Services sector will also miss the target of 5.1% growth rate as it will remain at 0.9% in the current fiscal year, as per sources.

Consumer Price Index- National was recorded 29.2% from July to May. This is an indicator for annual average inflation.

The CPI (urban) remained 26.8% which included Food 37.3%, non food 20.3%. Whereas CPI (Rural) remained 32.7% which included food 41%, and Non Food 25%.

The total investment in the current year will close near 13.6% against the target of 14.7%. On the other hand,  National savings as well as Foreign Saving  would be 12.5% and 1.1%, respectively.

As per the documents, the export target also could not be achieved during the current financial year. 

Exports during July to April were recorded at $23.2 billion against the full year target of $32 billion.

On the other hand, imports were recorded at $45.2 billion.

According to details, the size of the country’s economy shrank to $341.50 billion. This financial year, the GDP saw a real decrease of $34 billion as compared to the last year.

In 2021-22, the size of the country’s economy was $375.4 billion. The per-capita income also decreased by $188 to $1,568 from $1766 this fiscal year.

In rupees, the size of the country’s economy increased to Rs 84,760 billion mainly due to the free fall of rupee against the US dollar. As compared to the last fiscal year, the size of the economy saw an increase of Rs10,678 billion.

Similarly, in the local currency, the per-capita income saw an increase of Rs 75,418.

In the year 2022-23, the per capita income was recorded at Rs 388,755. In the previous year, the per-capita income was Rs313,337.

According to details, Pakistan’s fuel import bill was $27 billion in 2021-22 which is unsustainable given foreign exchange constraints.

It warrants a concerted effort at the national level, for implementation of energy efficiency and conservation measures across the energy value chain.  

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